Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung shake hands at the start of their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta on June 17, 2025. Photo: VCG

On June 19, the South Korean Embassy in Japan held a ceremony to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between the two countries, with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in attendance. Earlier, when the Japanese Embassy in South Korea hosted a similar event, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, who was attending the G7 Summit, delivered a speech via video. Ishiba's attendance this time was thus seen as going beyond diplomatic protocol and interpreted as a gesture to continue the momentum of improving South Korea-Japan relations based on the consensus he had reached with Lee. 

On June 17, Lee and Ishiba shook hands during the G7 Summit in Canada - a scene that stood in sharp contrast to events two years prior, when Lee, then the opposition leader, staged a 24-day hunger strike in protest of Japan's discharge of nuclear-contaminated water into the ocean. From confrontation to dialogue, will South Korea-Japan relations under Lee continue the "friendly status" seen during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration?

Since taking office, President Lee has acted swiftly on Japan-related diplomacy. He took office on June 4, held a 25-minute phone call with Prime Minister Ishiba on June 9, and met him during the G7 Summit on June 17. This pace signals a clear shift in Lee's approach toward Japan. As an opposition leader, Lee had harshly criticized the Yoon administration. Yet, during his recent talks with Ishiba, sensitive historical disputes were not mentioned. Instead, the focus was on cooperation.

Nevertheless, the historical issues that have long strained South Korea-Japan relations have not disappeared. Today's South Korean government faces a dilemma: it must build a practical cooperative relationship with Japan while also responding to domestic calls for historical justice. Lee has adopted a "two-track strategy" - managing historical issues strategically while advancing cooperation with Japan in areas such as security, economy and culture. However, this seemingly balanced approach faces significant challenges in practice.

Whether the relations between South Korea and Japan can maintain the "friendly status" seen during Yoon's administration depends on four key variables. First is the direction of South Korean public opinion. Yoon's description of Japan as a "partner for cooperation" once sparked large-scale protests domestically, with demonstrators calling for an end to what they saw as "humiliating" diplomacy. 

Second is the role of the US. Washington has long pushed for reconciliation between Seoul and Tokyo as a means to strengthen trilateral security cooperation. The extent of US mediation and pressure on this front will remain a significant factor. 

Third is the trajectory of China-South Korea relations. Lee has advocated for restoring inter-Korean dialogue channels and is committed to stabilizing ties with China. According to reports, some officials at Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs have expressed concern over South Korea tilting its regional diplomacy toward North Korea and China. 

Fourth is how historical issues are handled in practice. Although the two leaders did not raise historical disputes during their first meeting, issues such as "comfort women" and forced labor cannot be avoided indefinitely.

Sixty years ago, South Korea and Japan normalized diplomatic relations. Today, the two countries have reached a critical juncture. One likely scenario is that their relationship will not simply continue the "friendly status" seen under Yoon, but will instead enter a more complex state of dynamic balance under the "two-track strategy." While historical issues remain like unexploded ordnance buried beneath the surface, geopolitical pressures and shared economic interests are pushing both governments to seek the broadest possible common ground.

Looking forward, South Korea-Japan relations may increasingly resemble what Lee has described as "neighbors sharing a front yard" - maintaining necessary cooperation while managing their differences.

In June 2025, the handshake between Lee and Ishiba was not the endpoint of reconciliation between South Korea and Japan, but merely another starting point in the long journey of coexistence between two neighbors.

The author is the director and professor of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at the Shanghai University of International Business and Economics. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn