Farm employees work on a farm during the coffee harvest in Braganca Paulista, Brazil, April 4, 2025. Photo: VCG

Washington's 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports are set to hurt both the US, the world's largest coffee consumer and Brazil, the world's largest exporter, the head of the Brazilian coffee exporters council Cecafé told the Global Times in an exclusive interview on Sunday. 

As the US administration is threatening to impose 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports starting August 1, Marcos Matos, CEO at Cecafé, told the Global Times that while the US tariffs will have a severe impact on Brazil's foreign trade, the negative impact on the US economy will also be grave.
 
"According to our assessment, both countries would experience social and economic impacts, as the US is the world's largest coffee consumer and Brazil is its largest supplier, with a 33 percent market share. The impact on coffee roasters and manufacturers would be significant, as there would be no short-term substitute and this could also cause price increases, inflation, and supply difficulties," Matos said.

Citing a study by the National Coffee Association USA, Matos pointed out that coffee creates 2.2 million jobs and generates $343 billion in revenue, representing 1.2 percent of US GDP.

For every $1 of coffee imported, $43 is generated for the US economy and approximately 76 percent of the American population drinks coffee daily, the Cecafé head said.

In a July 21 report, US-based news outlet NPR reported that US coffee drinkers and businesses will pay the price for the US administration's Brazil tariffs. Some vendors are seeing a 30 percent rise in costs and some roasters have said that the tariff is "a tax on Americans' mornings."
 
Brazil exported 8.1 million bags of coffee to the US in 2024, creating about $2 billion in revenues and accounting for 33 percent of all coffee imports by the US, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture and Cecafé. This is followed by Colombia with a 20 percent market share, Vietnam with 8 percent, and Honduras with 7 percent.

This demonstrates the strong US dependence on Brazilian coffee and there is a strategic link between the two markets: Brazilian production and the American industry, noted Matos.

Brazilian coffee is essential for the blends the industry offers to the consumer market and it gives body and sweetness to coffees from Central America and Colombia. The body, acidity, and sweetness of Brazilian coffee are elements that cannot be substituted, at least not immediately, while connoisseurs' palates have already adapted to these elements in the product, the Brazilian coffee expert said, adding that replacing Brazilian coffee is not a simple or immediate matter. 

Matos said redirecting the high volume to the US is no easy task, given that other markets are already supplied, with supplier countries, trade volume, and quality (blends) already established, and changing this is complex.

However, the Cecafé head said that there is optimism about the Chinese market, which is being seen as the destination for increased consumption and innovation in the way coffee is prepared and enjoyed worldwide.

In Asia, exports grew 11.4 percent year-on-year in 2024, with highlights seen in Turkey, Russia and China. China, despite having reached 15th place in 2024, was growing 30 percent through June 2024, after reaching a record volume of 1.5 million bags in 2023, Matos said.

Brazil's coffee exports to the BRICS countries overall were also worth noting, Matos said, with 19.9 percent year-on-year growth in 2024.